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Comparing Shifts In Polls In Battleground States
September 23rd, 2008
Last Wednesday I did an analysis called The Way To Obama Victory In November Is Voter Registration explaining that voter registration and turnout will likely make the difference in the election, and highlighted the states where the most impact can be made.
Here is a look at the polls in those state from last week to this week.
Let’s look at the 12 states again that are within a 5 point margin, and the 3 other state that have now entered that realm.
In this graphic, on the left you have the numbers as I posted them last Wednesday, and on the right today’s numbers:
In Colorado Obama went from being up 0.6 to being up 4.0. A jump of 3.4 points
In Ohio McCain went from leading by 2.4 down to 1.8
In Michigan Obama has gone from up 2 to up to a significant 5 point lead. But certainly nothing to be throwing confetti over.
In Pennsylvania Obama went from being up 1.6 to 2.5
Virginia which was a dead heat, now has McCain up 1.3. In my scenario in last week’s post I gave McCain Virginia even when it was tied as it’s most likely to go that way based on history and so forth.
In Neveda McCain went from a 1.0 lead up to 1.7
In New Mexico Obama went from a 2.3 lead, jumping all the way to a 6 point lead
Obama’s 3.3 lead in New Hampshire is down to 1.7
He also is seeing an evaporating lead in Minnesota, down from 4.7 to to 2.8
Likewise Wisconsin is down for Obama from 5.3 to 3.2
In Washington a slight slide for Obama from 4.7 down to 4.2
In Indiana McCain is down from 4.7 to 2.3
New Mexico was the biggest swing at 3.7 points up for Obama, but the 3 point jump in Michigan is the most significant as the 7th most delegate rich state on the map; and is crucial to follow Kerry in keeping it blue if he wants to pick up a couple of other states and get the win.
But check this out, McCain is tanking in Florida; going from up 6.3 to down to 2. A state that he’s had a good lead in all along is now a toss up. That’s one of the 3 states that is now with in the 5 point margin. The other two are also McCain states where he has a sliding lead. Missouri which was at 6.6 is now down to a 4.7 lead, and North Carolina which was at about 6.7 is now down to 4.2
Conversely Obama is seeing significant negative direction in Virginia, NH, and Minnesota. Each one he can individually do without; but if he’s going to win you’d think he first need to hold NH blue, and pulling an upset in one of the others would go a long way to reaching 270. Actually Wisconsin was the biggest loss of the week for Obama, sliding 2.1 points, but he maintains a decent 3.2 lead. I predict that slide is temporary.
These are the states where the fight is really going down. If you live in one of these states or live with in a couple hours drive and can help out on the weekends; you should be going to town on voter registration and then turnout if you want to make a difference.
Popularity: 19% [?]
posted in Politics | | | View blog reactions | Print This Post
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Yobachi Boswell is creator and publisher of BlackPerspecitve.net. I’m a writer, activist and political watcher based in Nashville, Tennessee. I’ve also been know to do some spoken word and MCing in my day.
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Again…excellent analysis. I look forward to seeing how things break after the first Presidential debate on Friday…
peace, Villager
Thanks - things are very interesting. I wanna direct how things break with effective voter registration and then voter turn out.
Yobachi, what are your thoughts on McCain suspending his campaign and trying to put off Friday’s debate today. I think that it is absolutely hilarious.
John McCain is no more prepared to bring compromise on the Hill than he is ready to debate Obama on the economy.
Hmmm, hand’t even heard about it. I’ll have to check it out and get back to you.