BlackPerspective.net
Discussing the Diaspora as seen through an internal Black lens
Obama Opening A Can of Whoop Ass In Swing States
October 2nd, 2008
I mean, opening up significant leads.
Let’s make it clear first that the national polls don’t matter. This is not a national popular vote election; it’s a state by state popular vote election. I think the national polls can only matter to the extent that it can be a bit of a barometer mostly only do so to the extent that if a candidate can hits 51 in the national polls that’s usually a strong sign. Most of the time the lead candidate hovers in the 47 to 49 range, so to break through to 51 and hold, normally bolds well.
But even in my state to state poll analysis, I don’t accept the numbers from just any given poll. I go by the Real Clear Politics Poll of averages; which averages together a number of different polls to giving what I think is the most realistic look.
I did my last analysis 8 days ago, so now here’s where everything stands.
Electorial Map
[The numbers are how many electorial votes each state has]
McCain has led Ohio since the general race started. He was up by 2.4 points 2 week ago, and 1.8 last Wednesday. Today Obama leads by 2 points. A strong 4 and a half point swing in one week.
McCain has also led Florida the whole time, and for the longest by some significant margins. He was up 6.3 2 weeks ago, and still 2 points last week. Obama is now up by 3 points.
Obama has come from behind in Nevada, down 1.5, and North Carolina down a strong 4.2 to now lead both states by the slightest 0.5 margin. Conversely, New Hampshire has been sliding slightly towards McCain going from a 3.3 Obama lead two weeks ago, and then from 1.7 last week down to 1.5 this week. New Hampshire made John McCain 8 years ago delivering a big upset win to him over Bush in the primaries. A state of independents and moderates, it can go either way.
Virginia has been swinging back and forth from tie, to McCain lead, now to Obama up by 2. That’s 3 southern states in the Obama column right now (FL and N.C. the other two). If this holds, and Obama wins southern states, where Kerry and Gore did not win a single one, it will be a wipeout. But all three are still easily up for grabs.
The bad news for Obama is that Missouri in the last century has picked the president correctly every time but once, and McCain maintains a 1.7 lead there. The good news is that’s down about 3 points from a week ago. Indiana nudged only 1/10th of a point, keeping McCain in the lead by 2.2 points.
The best news: his exploding lead in Pennsylvania; going from 1.6 to 2.5 now to 7.6 points; though he hasn’t reached 51%, so I don’t see it as being in the bag. But great trend with the other all important swing states FL, OH and Michigan also all trending his way the last two weeks. Speaking of the latter, MI is now up for Obama by 6.6. Obama is also up in Bush state New Mexico by 6 points.
Obama is starting to open up commanding, though certainly not definite leads in Wisconsin, Washington, Minnesota, New Jersey, Maine Oregano, Iowa; and along with Penn and MI, were all both Gore and Kerry states; showing that apparently democrats are coming home first with moderates/independents starting to follow.
So much for not getting White working class voters - take that and shove it up your ass Pat Buchanan.
If Obama wins all of the Kerry states and one of the larger Bush states or two of the medium to smaller ones, he wins. Right now he’s got that and then some. But anyone who thinks they know that it’s over just because of where polls are 34 days out is imprudent. Bigger leads have evaporated in less time.
The work must continue. . .Voter registration is the key
Popularity: 39% [?]
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Yobachi Boswell is creator and publisher of BlackPerspecitve.net. I’m a writer, activist and political watcher based in Nashville, Tennessee. I’ve also been know to do some spoken word and MCing in my day.
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To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
see www.NationalPopularVote.com
We’ve been working REAL hard in Missouri to turn it blue. There was a big hip hop caucus voter reg. drive Tues. I heard it was great.
Always working.
And thanks to the *political work* and *community organizing* of Sarah Silverman, we might get Florida, too.
www.thegreatschlep.com/site/index.html
I’m for of the Electoral College because it forces politicians to pay attention to all people and the issues of people in small states, where otherwise they would ignore them an only focus on
the most populated areas; which is why we have the lectoral college in the first place.
Good to hear about MO. It’s getting tight there.
I heard about that Silverman video yesterday morning. Thanks for the link.
now i know anything is possible ,mccain is history obama is history (So what are they going to do now paint the white house black ,or change to the president’s house .LOL(laugh out loud) .