BlackPerspective.net
Discussing the Diaspora as seen through an internal Black lens
State Polling and The Electoral Map: McCain’s In Trouble
October 9th, 2008
This is my forth weekly examination of the shifts in polls state to state; and look at how the electoral map is shaping up.
Well for three strait weeks, it’s been shaping in pretty much one direction- toward Obama
Not only is Obama now strongly leading in one important swing states the Republicans thought they could pouch; at this point he’s running away with the lead in Pennsylvania up 12 and a half.
McCain already outright quit and Michigan and left last week.
New Hampshire, which Bush won in 2,000, and Kerry barley won in 2004 looked to be a Blue state McCain my snatch away just 2 or 3 weeks ago. Now it’s no longer in play as Obama is up almost 11.
Everything is percipitously shifting Obama’s way, except Indiana. Even stubborn Missouri which has picked the president all but once in the last 100 years, which had been in McCain’s column until the last few days.
Look at how the map has changed the last few weeks. The Solid Red States are the ones McCain leads solidly, and the fade reds are those that are leaning his way; same with Obama for the Blue states. The Grey states are those so close that they’re considered a toss up.
You can’t see the first two maps, but at the bottom you can see the percentage lead. In the week of August 24th Obama led by by 1.7. The lead switched to McCain for the next two weeks, but since then it’s been all Obama.
I figure on election night I’ll know if this is going to be a blow out early. When the polls start closing on the East Coast at 8 pm, if Obama has won even one of the souther states in which he currently leads, a feat which Kerry and Gore couldn’t do combined; it’s going to be a landslide across the contry. If he doesn’t win won, we may be looking at a fight; but one that’s still favors Obama the way the map is now, because if he takes all the states that he’s leading in right now not counting those 3 southern states, he still wins. He could lose those 3, and about three more of the states that he has a small lead in right now, and still win.
Out of the 8 states that are most closely contested, Bush won 7 of them twice, and one of them in 2004. The closest margin in a state that Kerry and Gore took is Michigan with a pretty good 7 point lead for Obama, and McCain has already quit trying for it.
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Yobachi Boswell is creator and publisher of BlackPerspecitve.net. I’m a writer, activist and political watcher based in Nashville, Tennessee. I’ve also been know to do some spoken word and MCing in my day.
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Great information. However, the polls always concern me. Just like I was told not to pay much attention to the polls when McCain was leading…I’m still skeptical.
I’m praying that these numbers hold up. I’m with Roschelle…
That’s why I use the Real Clear Politics Poll of averaging polls; and why I give note other analytical contectual factors.
So no, you can’t take things on pure face value, you have to allow for some margins. But the polls are so much in his favor right now, he has a lot of buffer room - for instance, even if he lost every state that he’s only a head by 5 points or less in, he would still win.
Which means, he and his supporters have to keep working to maintain that buffer. I predict Obama loses any state that he goes into election day only ahead in only by 3 points or less.
It’s also why people should be pushing early voting while folks are favoring him.