The Black Vote: Obama or Clinton
posted in Politics | | | View blog reactions | Print This PostBy: D. Yobachi Boswell
With the next presidential election revving up earlier than ever in modern political history, this cycle; it’s not too early to take a look at what some of the candidates have to offer. Though certainly black people are not a monolith, there are two clear front-runners for the black vote as of now – Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
On the one hand there is a fondness the mass of the Black community holds for the Clintons, do to, whether warranted or unwarranted; feelings that during Bill Clinton’s presidency they were on our side – looked out for black folks. But the Clintons share an even cozier relationship with the Black community than the average white politician thought to be on their side. Bill Clinton saxophoned his way into the hearts of many blacks on the Arseno Hall Show during his first presidential run in ’92, and it has been a love affair ever since. Between that opening salvo, perceived favorable policy and that down home Black Baptist preacher way of communicating, which he has successfully pulled off in actual Black Baptist Churches to boot; the Clinton’s have schmoozed their way into a reserved vaunted position in general Black society.
Added to that Bill’s choice of Harlem to set up his offices post-presidency and Hillary evening naming a book she authored after an African proverb, along wit those pictures of the world wind trip she took to Africa as First Lady; they seemed to had have locked up Black support for Hillary’s long expected presidential run.
On the other hand we have a relatively young (45), fresh on the national scene, handsome Senator, Barack Obama. Barack enjoys black support because first of all, well…he’s black. Already anointed some Luke Skywalker-esq rising star in the Democratic Party by both the party bosses and the media, from the day he stepped on the national stage two and half years ago, delivering a speech at the Democratic National convention; he ignited the hopes and dreams of a community clamoring both for mainstream solidification in a country so long denying them full recognition. And further clamoring simply for some damn representation in government.
Certainly being black isn’t enough; it’s what he brings to the table as a Black man – all the charisma of the beloved Bill Clinton, and the “Talented Tenth” credentials that being a graduate of Harvard Law provides. He combines both the down-homeness that the Black community tends to prefer; along with unimpeachable, prerequisite educational standing that some in our community require. He also lacks the fiery persona that makes Al Sharpton off-putting to some; and carries none of his or Jesse Jackson baggage. And then there’s that hope - that hope that this one can actually win; seeing that there is ostensible support, or at least approval of the white majority that would be necessary to win even a democratic party nomination, much less the general election.
A great indicator of what the answer to the proposed question may end up being is to look at the path of poll numbers in the short three months since the race officially started.
In January, according to Washington Post-ABC Polling, when Clinton officially announced, she led Obama amongst Blacks 60 percent to 20 percent. Obama announced three weeks after Clinton, and by the end of February, with a boost in notoriety, Obama had turned the table, taking the lead 44 percent to Clinton’s 33 percent.
It’s a stunning turnaround in just a few weeks. It can be largely explained by the fact that most Americans didn’t even know who Obama was before he announced for the presidential candidacy. The post-announcement media coverage raised his profile and gave Black and all voters a chance to know him. But there’s an added troubling aspect in this poll turnaround for Clinton. The title wave took place in spite of Clinton still having a favorable rating with 4 out of 5 Blacks.
One solace for Clinton is that it’s early and the 44/33 split still leaves 23 percent up for grabs; significantly more than what’s needed for her to regain that lead. With presidential nominations usually coming down to two candidates in the end, and 10 months until the primaries start; there’s plenty of time for her to hedge her position if these two front-runners end up going head to head at the end of the primaries. On the other hand it could just become more time for her to further lose Black voters as Obama becomes even more well know. She has had a 12-year head start on him after all.
It’s too early to make any final conclusions. American voters in general are notoriously fickle, and any scandal or revelation could rightfully cause changes in favor. A couple of things that are for sure, Clinton can’t simply rely on the longstanding affection she’s enjoyed in the Black community and take their vote for granted; and that Obama has the opportunity to stake a larger claim in that vote.
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