BlackPerspective.net
Discussing the Diaspora as seen through an internal Black lens
The Way To Obama Victory In November Is Voter Registration
September 17th, 2008
The groups of people who are most likely to vote for John McCain are groups who will actually vote, as they normally vote in strong reliable numbers: old people, people high on the economic scale, and he (like every republican nominee) will win the majority of whites, who as a group vote in higher percentages then any other racial demographic.
All evidence shows that white undecided have been breaking to McCain the last three weeks, as recent history and the Obama campaign’s underwhelming performance in recent weeks in connecting with average low-information voters would both suggest would happen.
Courtesy of Real Clear Politics
With 12 states having a 5 point polling margin; they’re ripe for the taking with an influx of new voters. Those who haven’t voted before or not in a while, who are motivated to vote by Obama’s campaign, are his best hope for taking those states. Convincing those who have set their minds against him is hardly likely ; and pinning his chances on turning the tide of undecideds breaking in McCain’s favor, isn’t a stable strategy to rely on, as it is not the most likely prospect.
What Obama does have in his favor is a lot of unregistered people who if they vote would vote for him. His focus areas where he holds the strongest margins should be the young (under 30); Black communities; other marginalized potential voters; and urban areas in general, especially in areas where amenable whites tend to congregate or live.
While targeting these groups for registration, he can then look to fight for what he can get on the margins in rural areas and amongst groups whose members do not tend to lean his way.
Courtesy of Real Clear Politics
If Obama wins all the states he’s leading in right now (giving tied Virginia to McCain, as it is traditionally republican) he would win the election with 286 electoral votes (you need 270 to win). But that’s a very tenuous situation as McCain continues to rise and Obama continues to decrease; along with the last 28 years of republicans closing strong in October and democrats fading as election day draws closer (save the two Clinton elections).
But time is running out. Voter registration deadlines in many states are coming as soon as soon as October 6, which is just 19 days away. Those who would help this effort better get on it.
To learn how to register or check the voter registration deadline for your state, see the Proud Black Voter Blog.
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4 Responses to “The Way To Obama Victory In November Is Voter Registration”
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Yobachi Boswell is creator and publisher of BlackPerspecitve.net. I’m a writer, activist and political watcher based in Nashville, Tennessee. I’ve also been know to do some spoken word and MCing in my day.
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Time is indeed running out; and the election really is in reach…IF the Obama campaign makes a full court press through to November. They need to run like they want it. I’ll never forget when Boondocks cartoonist Aaron McGruder (interviewed on NPR’s News and Notes) remarked that while he didn’t agree with their positions, the Republicans do, at least, run their presidential campaigns like they really want it.
All true. That’s what I’ve been trying to tell people. For some reason democrats never learn this lesson. It’s actually mind blowing to me how they repeat the exact same mistakes election after election.
Yes Black on Campus, generally the republicans run a tight campaign. However, this time around they have really found themselves in a tight pickle because the usual tactics that they use with great success upon typical candidates may gain an inch of traction against Obama, but then it never goes beyond that. They just don’t understand it…that people are just tired of feeling under represented.
The thing that Boswell said is true too because with the closeness of the race the undecideds, the young voters, and the apathetic voters who are sporadic at best can win the election in the places that Obama is expected to lose if they turn out in strong numbers.
It’s not just places that Obama is expected to lose, actually those are the least of the concern. He’s not anywhere close to wrapping up traditional battle ground states that always have the chance of going either way. He he’s losing in New Hampshire, which Kerry won. And he’s in a battle in CO and NM which he was hoping to steal this time to expand the map.
He could lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida as it is right now. Democrats were expected to easily take 2 if not 3 of those 4 this time. He’s leading in two, but just barely, and is way behind and one.