BlackPerspective.net

Watershed AIDS Vaccine Moment? The Numbers Make Me Wonder

September 25th, 2009

I was surprised and overjoyed as I drove into work yesterday morning, when hearing the news that a large scale human HIV vaccine trail had produced a 31% prevention rate.

All previous vaccine trials have been dismal failures. Many leading AIDS scientist have mused that a vaccine maybe impossible; or at least so difficult that we may not be able to figure it.

So hearing that a vaccine trial was success, even if not across the board, is wonderful news.

But then I began to wonder, how do they know HIV was being prevented by the vaccine without giving people HIV?

I looked it up and my curiosity about how that works were assuaged, as this msnbc article states that

The study tested the combo in HIV-negative Thai men and women aged 18 to 30 at average risk of becoming infected. Half received four “priming” doses of ALVAC and two “boost” doses of AIDSVAX over six months. The others received dummy shots.

Hence, HIV was indeed not introduced to the subjects; they were simply vaccinated, or not, and left to live their lives, and then tested over time.

AIDS Remember Me

Yet, then I read the data of the results, which raises a new concern about the study’s findings.
There were two groups in the trial test, one given the combo trial vaccine, and one group given the placebo .

Of the study methodology and results, the msnbc article says

“All were given condoms, counseling and treatment for any sexually transmitted infections, and were tested every six months for HIV. Any who became infected were given free treatment with antiviral medicines. All participants continued to receive an HIV test every six months for three years after vaccinations ended.

The results: New infections occurred in 51 of the 8,197 given vaccine and in 74 of the 8,198 who received dummy shots. That worked out to a 31 percent lower risk of infection for the vaccine group.

Really? 23 people out of 16,000 studied is what we’re basing efficacy on? I must be missing something here. Can someone explain it to me?

Yeah, it’s a 31 percent difference, but it’s a 31% difference between nothing. It just doesn’t seem to me that there were even enough people who contracted the virus to tell anything from it, especially when, as the article states, “the vaccine had no effect on levels of HIV in the blood for those who did become infected.”

So you can’t even look at the blood of the people who got the vaccination versus those who didn’t and say, we can see the evidence of resistance due to the vaccine, even though it broke through. You apparently can’t tell anything. And with such a small difference in total number (percentage difference not with standing), I don’t know how you we know that the difference isn’t just happenstance. How do we know that that gap wouldn’t shrink to little to nothing as the cases of the infection grew, since the difference in total number is actual quite small; which means a small shift upward of a few people in the nonvaccinated group, would make a significant downward shift in the percentage difference.

We’re dealing with only 0.8% (that’s less than 1 full percentage) of the population in the study that were infected.

Hey, maybe I’m looking at it all wrong. Maybe the fact that the trial was so large, 16,395 in the sample universe verifies the validity of the results despite the small number of infected (and difference in infections). They’re the professionals, I’d just like the concerns addressed and explained.
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I’ve been a pretty regular poster on AIDS over the last couple of years, and here’s what I wriote about the last treatment development I’ came across: Might Bone Marrow Transplant Be The Cure For AIDS

Also watch this great documentary, The Age of AIDS for free online, here.

Here is the trailer:

posted in Foreign News, Health, News & Events, youtube | | | View blog reactions |

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Yobachi Boswell is creator and publisher of BlackPerspecitve.net. I’m a writer, activist and political watcher based in Nashville, Tennessee. I’ve also been know to do some spoken word and MCing in my day.

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